The global fight against malaria has stalled after two decades of significant progress. Campaigners warned yesterday that a "perfect storm" of climate change, population growth, and funding gaps threatens a deadly resurgence.
A new report by the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (Alma) and Malaria No More UK states that insufficient funding for increasingly costly prevention programmes is putting decades of effort at risk. The cost, they warn, will be measured in hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of dollars in economic losses. This impact is primarily in Africa.
The continent already bears the brunt of the disease, accounting for 95% of global cases. In 2023, malaria claimed 590,000 lives worldwide.
The report, released ahead of a critical Global Fund financing meeting in South Africa on 21 November, highlights that progress has flatlined. Globally, there were 263 million malaria cases in 2023. This is an alarming increase of 11 million from the previous year, according to the UN’s World Malaria Report 2024.
The report stated that insufficient funding has stalled progress in malaria control. It said a perfect storm of climate change, rising drug and insecticide resistance, trade disruptions and global insecurity further undermined the efficacy of malaria interventions.
Climate Change Creates New Breeding Grounds
Climate change is no longer a future threat but a present danger in the fight against malaria. Campaigners noted that several African countries reported significant upsurges in malaria cases between January and June 2025. This increase directly followed periods of heavy rainfall and flooding.
Joy Phumaphi, executive secretary of Alma, said rising temperatures and flooding due to climate change have created more mosquito breeding sites.
She explained that these environmental shifts are expanding the disease's geographic range. In Rwanda, for example, mosquito breeding sites are now being found at higher altitudes than ever before.
Compounding this challenge is the spread of the invasive Anopheles stephensi mosquito from Asia into Africa. There is also rising resistance to existing insecticides. While new-generation prevention methods are effective, they are also significantly more costly. These methods include dual-insecticide mosquito nets and the use of drones to disperse chemicals.
Rising Costs and Population Growth
The financial challenge is twofold: interventions are more expensive, and the number of people in need of protection has grown. Phumaphi noted that Africa’s population had almost doubled in the past 30 years.
The report underscores the severe economic consequences of inaction. Malaria is a leading cause of worker and student absenteeism and causes learning and cognitive disruption in children.
Phumaphi said malaria leads to vast amounts of out-of-pocket payments for households and is a significant cause of poverty.
Funding models included in the report paint a stark picture. A complete halt in all prevention interventions could cost Africa $83 billion (about R1.4 trillion) in lost gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. This would be accompanied by an estimated 525 million additional cases and 990,000 more deaths, on top of the already high annual toll.
Funding and Future Hopes
All eyes are now on the upcoming meeting to secure contributions for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. This fund currently finances 59% of all malaria spending.
Campaigners argue that investing in malaria eradication would yield "massive" returns for the economies by boosting productivity and tourism.
Hope also lies in new technology. A first-generation anti-malaria vaccine is already in use in 23 African countries, offering around 40% efficacy. While this must be accompanied by other prevention measures, a new vaccine currently undergoing human trials is hoped to show 80% efficacy. This could potentially offer a powerful new tool in the global health arsenal.